Category: Research Notes
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The Backtest Isn’t the Strategy: Where Edge Disappears in Live Trading
A backtest is not a strategy. A backtest is a measurement under a set of assumptions – many of which quietly fail the moment you go live. In crypto spot and futures, the gap between a beautiful curve and a real system is usually not one big mistake. It’s a stack of small, compounding mismatches: costs, fills,…
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Why We Don’t Forecast (Much): Robustness > Predictions
Most trading content starts with a prediction. Ours usually starts with a constraint. Crypto spot and futures markets are noisy, reflexive, and regime-driven. The hard part isn’t producing a confident view – it’s building a system that survives when the view is wrong, the data is messy, and execution is worse than the backtest implied.…